now it is
with great honor that I introduce today's keynote speaker dr.
:
michael
burry Michael is one of our own and economics graduate of the class of
:
nineteen
ninety-three and we are thrilled that he has come back to campus
:
to speak
today
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he is
joined by his wife aunty and his sons Michael and Nicholas his
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brother-in-law
John and sister-in-law on men
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Michael was
an exceptional undergraduate here at UCLA as if a full course load as
:
an econ
major wasn't enough he also managed to fulfill rigorous pre-med
:
requirements
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after
leaving UCLA he proceeded to earn his medical degree at Vanderbilt
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but the
drawer of the investment world soon i became his desire to practice
:
medicine
:
by the time
he founded sion capital in two thousand Michael had already earned
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a stellar
reputation as an investor with extraordinary vision now about a year
:
and a half
after the financial crisis hit in Queen
Elizabeth of England
:
visited the
london school of economics and she asked the distinguished faculty
:
there
:
why nobody
had predicted the financial crisis
:
she should
have come to UCLA because Michael did he used his vision to
:
predict the
collapse of America's financial and real estate markets
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he foresaw
the failure of companies such as aig Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
:
countrywide
financial and washington mutual
:
you might
recognize his story from his profile in Michael Lewis's
:
best-selling
book the big short
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Michael
closed so I on Capitol in and these days
he fund startups and
:
invests his
own money
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Michael
will no doubt have some predictions for all of us in the
:
audience
today and certainly some prescient words of advice for the class
:
of
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I know we
will all be inspired by his story and his vision and now it gives me
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great
pleasure to welcome the UCLA economics commencement speaker for the
:
class of
:
dr. michael
berry
:
well thank
you professor farmer class of
:
congratulations
quite an achievement to graduate from UCLA
:
you know
it's nice to be back in westwood I certainly have fond memories
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of my time
here in many ways the campus is much the same but in some ways I can
:
see it's
different
:
I do know
your campus life and much different than mine
:
twenty
years ago I had no internet no cell no smart phone no cell phone i
:
don't think
you know what i did invest my summer earnings and stocks and
:
futures and
I remember being absolutely starved for information
:
I had to
send away for financial statements
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sometimes
waiting weeks for a response and i would take a near daily trip to
:
westwood to
pick up a wall street journal to check yesterday stock quotes
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today it's
much different information swarms us comforts us
:
it disrupts
us it's an age of infinite distraction for those so willing
:
you are the
generation that had instant messaging facebook twitter and angry
:
birds
nagging your fingertips at every moment
:
it's been
arguably as addictive as any drugs throughout history and I do
:
imagine
:
it took
some terrific will power during your studies to study of course it's not
:
lost on
anyone that you started your term UCLA in the midst of a global
:
financial
panic
:
the
consequences of which are far from settled
:
the fault
is not your own but the future it leaves certainly is
:
as a result
of what happened while you were growing up
:
you now
face the future that will feature either
:
another
great recession during your twenties ordering your forties a u.s.
:
debt to gdp
ratio exceeding two hundred percent and that's not me that's the
:
Congressional
Budget Office me
:
I think
they're ignoring reflectivity and I think you face both
:
now Greece
was that one hundred and sixty percent gdp debt-to-gdp when its
:
last of its
Diane life started running out from my perspective this is all the
:
more tragic
because the financial meltdown was both predictable and
:
preventable
:
this was no
black swan and no other serendipitous excuse should be
:
acceptable
to anyone of late
:
europe
convulsions or in the news even this should not be surprising back in
:
two
thousand six when a bunch of a shorted portugal italy greece and spain
:
we call
them the pigs for a reason
:
I can
explain it in one sentence when the entitled elect themselves the party
:
accelerates
the brutal hangover is inevitable
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Californians
and indeed all Americans ought to take note my career after UCLA
:
arced in
such a manner that i found myself right in the middle of the
:
financial
meltdown profiting from it because i had predicted it
:
I have been
a chicken little or a Cassandra to some especially in
:
government
:
I'm one
lucky sob and truth
:
I was just
trying to figure it all out from my earliest years
:
I found
that life for all its amazing possibilities
:
very often
does not make sense and at least as often is not fair
:
today it is
absolutely not fair the world you are being dealt
:
there are
many ways to deal with an unfair world one make tune out drop out
:
run away
when they get angry when they fight one could do ultimately what I did
:
except the
world for what it is work hard to exploit the opportunities it
:
presents and
try to do so it is just a manner as possible
:
now there
are two kinds of working hard you can work hard you can work smart or
:
you can
work dumb when I was in sixth grade my dad dumped a pile of bricks in
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the
backyard and after school you had us move me my brother's move the bricks to
:
the side
yard
:
the next
day he had us moving back to the backyard
:
the next
day back to the side yard and so forth this continued for quite a
:
while
:
I'm not
sure what he intended by this but I did learn that work hard work for
:
hard work
sake alone would not do later in observing the tenure system so
:
endemic to
academic ventures
:
I would
think that myself hey we're just moving a pile of bricks
:
in fact i
began to doubt traditional education
:
I committed
myself to educating myself as opportunities arose
:
still as I
graduated from UCLA I had a Vanderbilt Medical School and read liars
:
poker by
michael lewis and it nearly convinced me that even if I could become
:
a great
money manager
:
I shouldn't
besides medicine appear just my interest in medicine would fade
:
however as
the act as I studied economics and regulation of health care
:
while in
chicago in the government payer would
weigh far too heavily on
:
that
playing field and I did not think it would be fair enough
:
so during
medical school I put up a website some ideas on stocks and markets
:
as I
graduated medical school in microsoft
out of the blue offered me a
:
dollar a
word to write for the new msn money website being wordy and being in
:
debt naturally I
said yes so therefore during my medicine internship I wrote for
:
microsoft
and ran my website there are synergies between two of the three and i
:
had
unknowingly found a back door to wall street
:
none of
this was nearly as well planned as it seems in retrospect
:
there were
a number of crises including a divorce and at one point I was so
:
despondent
over my direction that I even applied to law school
:
again and
again I figured as long as I kept asking questions
:
working so
hard to answer questions I would eventually find my way as I turned
:
:
I ran out
of reasons why I couldn't or shouldn't left medicine start an
:
investment
firm that . the decision became came very easily as perhaps
:
should be
the case more often than not i simply way the paths before me without
:
considering
the path on which I had been at sayan capital my job was to
ask
:
ask
questions and seek answers
:
I mostly
examined stocks and bonds as long investments but one day I came
:
across a
sub prime residential mortgage back securities ation and I wondered if
:
I could
figure out any of that other questions soon followed
:
why are
home prices diverging up and away from the household income trendline
:
answer if
it's not income
:
it's
leverage what exactly are the incentives of lenders that make
:
mortgages
only to sell them on through the wall street answer
:
volume at
the expense of credit standards when interest rates bottom
:
how far
could lenders push mortgage terms in order to keep refinancings home
:
prices and
loan volumes rising the answer to this question would put a
:
ticking
timer on the boom and a date on the crash back in two thousand five
:
other
questions stood out how much is consumer spending dependent on cash out
:
refinancing
what percentage of jobs are dependent on the assumption of rising
:
home prices
:
well aig
have to start posting massive cash collateral for the first time
:
if it were
downgraded isn't it worrisome that fannie mae cannot find term sheets
:
that
describe perfect hedges against its massive mortgage portfolio are the
:
rating
agencies so conflicted that they could be this blind in my letters to
:
investors
:
I described
the downturn that would be unprecedented know with no counter power
:
in the
mount in the modern era
:
Wall
Street's risk models would fall all at once and every single CEO and every
:
single
politician would be disastrously wrong
:
I put my
money where my mouth was at its peak of a short eight point four billion
:
dollars
worth of subprime mortgages and certain financial companies
:
the most we
could lose was less than million dollars
:
thanks to credit
derivatives and at first we did lose it was a negative
:
carry trade
investors business partners and even employees questions strategy
:
lawsuits
were threatened our distress was reported in the press and Wall
:
Street look
to squeeze are short
:
besides all
this
:
I had to
stomach what I knew was coming a tragic end to the follies
:
this was
not fun
:
I did not
tap dance to work but the firm survived
:
we turned
the tables on Wall Street and I became the one percent in a way I
:
never
imagined when I was sitting where you sit today i had bet against America
:
and one in I public published an op-ed in the New York
Times posing what
:
i thought
was a valid question of the Federal Reserve Congress and the
:
president
:
I saw the
crisis coming why did not the Fed never did any member of Congress any
:
member of
government for that matter
:
reach out
to me for an open collegial discussion on what went wrong or what
:
could be
done rather within two weeks
:
all six of
my defunct funds were audited the Congressional financial crisis
:
inquiry
commission demanded all my emails and list the people with whom i
:
converse
going back to two thousand three and a little later the FBI showed
:
up a
million and legal and accounting costs and thousands of hours of time
:
wasted all
because
:
I asked
questions
:
it seemed
they would pop me at gunpoint or not at all
:
that summer
the Federal Reserve put out a paper that concluded nothing in the
:
field of
economics or finance could have predicted what happened with regard to
:
the housing
bust and subsequent economic fallout
:
Ben
Bernanke continued ben bernanke continues to backfill this logic and I
:
fear that
history is being written wrong yet again the ignorance is will full as
:
we move
forward as a country it is worth considering mainstream economics and
:
finance in
light of recent events our nation's economic policies are born of a
:
synthesis
of theory on how to deal with the Great Depression of the s seems
:
unable to
honestly examine the most recent one
:
sadly at
the highest levels of economic thought in government questions are not
:
tolerated
it is as if we are dealing with the binary judgment of a
:
fundamentalist
religion finance theory and practice fare no better the
:
continuing
crisis makes a mockery of the principles which have guided credit
:
policy and
risk management since the nineteen sixties as it turns out
:
information
is not perfect
:
volatility
does not define risk markets are not efficient
:
the
individual is adaptable but the dark ages of Finance allow no such light
:
mainstream
economist and finance practitioners
:
please
check your premises
:
you have
contradictions before you
:
truthfully
I do not expect much to change
:
practically
speaking history has demonstrated the ability of sovereign
:
nations to
justify them themselves and to postpone the moment of crisis
:
this will
be even more true for the United States is the largest economy by
:
far with
the strongest central bank as a result over the course of your lives you
:
experience
withering but stealthy attacks on your quality of life as
:
government
attempts to manage its faltering finances
:
you'll see
declines in the quality of healthcare the quality of education the
:
quality of
public safety and the quality of our currency of course this is a
:
false
prophecy
:
I'm simply
describing what is already happening
:
class of by graduating today you are taking a step
:
another
step on a path that is fairly well worn a path that in and of itself
:
defines
little about your future
:
many have
started from where you start today and done great and wonderful
:
things but
many to have live lives of another sort
:
whatever
you see is the next obvious step consider whether you're being true
:
to yourself
:
Your
Strengths your weaknesses your needs before you take it
:
the next
decade or so before you have kids before you get married is the most
:
flexible
most genius decade of your life
:
you ought
to consider stepping outside your paradigm to for a fresh look
:
now and
again if you are considering a career on wall street or in Washington DC
:
you should
be aware of the social proof that operates there this is
that many if not most people
:
we'll be
doing questionable things that obviously make money and obviously earn
:
respect
from common peers
:
if you find
yourself in such a place i would ask you to consider a rule i
:
learned as
a physician first do no harm
:
besides
life is not that short life is well and long enough for you to come to
:
regret any
activity or habit involving exchange of long-term risk for
:
short-term
benefit
:
this is
what many if not most Americans did during the refinancing and
:
consumption
boom of last decade and it was what our government didn't egging on
:
the boom
:
this is
also the gospel of drunk drivers and cheating spouses of course when you
:
encounter
the opposite the short term risk exchanged for long-term benefit
:
consider
hitting that button again and again and again
:
past maybe
prologue but this is not true for the individual the individual can
:
think
different and the individual can act different than those that got us all
:
into this
mess
:
no matter
how the economic tides may sweep away the majority and in India an
:
individual
can stand clear
:
each of
your lives
:
individually
is an epic chance you can leave here today and you can choose to
:
never stop
learning never to stop asking questions
:
I must say
it will not be without staggering difficulties there will be
:
times when
you will stare at yourself in the mirror and wonder why
:
but faced
with a setback you will be
:
most
creative under stress you will think better and act stronger
:
so much so
that looking back it will seem as though it was all meant to be
:
thank you
and good luck