Epidemiology
Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics, with risk factors influenced by local spatial variations of rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, degree of urbanization and quality of vector control services in urban areas. Before 1970, only nine countries had experienced severe dengue epidemics. Today, the disease is endemic in more than 100 countries in WHO’s African, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions; the Americas, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions are the most seriously affected.
Member States in three WHO regions regularly report the annual number of cases to the Secretariat. Figure 1 shows the number of dengue cases (suspected or confirmed) notified to WHO since 1990.
The actual numbers of dengue cases are underreported and many cases are misclassified. One recent (2013) estimate indicates that 390 million dengue infections occur every year (95% credible interval 284–528 million), of which 96 million (67–136 million) manifest clinically (with any severity of disease).1 Another (2012) study, of the prevalence of dengue, estimates that 3.9 billion people in 128 countries are at risk of infection with dengue viruses.2
While these figures are estimates – and should therefore be interpreted with the known limitations that accompany modelling studies – they highlight the staggering epidemiological and economic burden that endemic countries are facing. There is a large discrepancy between the dengue burden estimated by academic groups and the dengue burden notified to WHO. The reasons for this include lack of resources and capacity to survey dengue effectively, and the fact that many countries report only laboratory-confirmed cases, which represent only a small majority of the total number of dengue cases recorded and reported. Importantly, as shown in Figure 2, WHO does not receive dengue case notifications from all affected countries. No cases are currently reported from Sub-saharan Africa (AFRO) or the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO), which are estimated to contribute significantly to the global burden of dengue.
To enrich the use of data collected and notified by governments, WHO will publish dengue data on the WHO website and prepare the first Global Dengue Report at the end of 2017.
What is dengue?
Dengue is fast emerging pandemic-prone viral disease in many parts of the world. Dengue flourishes in urban poor areas, suburbs and the countryside but also affects more affluent neighbourhoods in tropical and subtropical countries.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection causing a severe flu-like illness and, sometimes causing a potentially lethal complication called severe dengue. The incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold over the last 50 years. Up to 50-100 million infections are now estimated to occur annually in over 100 endemic countries, putting almost half of the world’s population at risk.
Severe dengue (previously known as dengue haemorrhagic fever) was first recognized in the 1950s during dengue epidemics in the Philippines and Thailand. Today it affects Asian and Latin American countries and has become a leading cause of hospitalization and death among children and adults in these regions.
The full life cycle of dengue fever virus involves the role of mosquito as a transmitter (or vector) and humans as the main victim and source of infection.
The virus
The dengue virus (DEN) comprises four distinct serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4) which belong to the genus Flavivirus, family Flaviviridae.
Distinct genotypes have been identified within each serotype, highlighting the extensive genetic variability of the dengue serotypes. Among them, “Asian” genotypes of DEN-2 and DEN-3 are frequently associated with severe disease accompanying secondary dengue infections.
The mosquito
The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector that transmits the viruses that cause dengue. The viruses are passed on to humans through the bites of an infective female Aedes mosquito, which mainly acquires the virus while feeding on the blood of an infected person.
The human
Once infected, humans become the main carriers and multipliers of the virus, serving as a source of the virus for uninfected mosquitoes. The virus circulates in the blood of an infected person for 2-7 days, at approximately the same time that the person develops a fever. Patients who are already infected with the dengue virus can transmit the infection via Aedes mosquitoes after the first symptoms appear (during 4-5 days; maximum 12).
In humans recovery from infection by one dengue virus provides lifelong immunity against that particular virus serotype. However, this immunity confers only partial and transient protection against subsequent infection by the other three serotypes of the virus. Evidence points to the fact that sequential infection increases the risk of developing severe dengue. The time interval between infections and the particular viral sequence of infections may also be of importance.
1 Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL et.al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. 2013;496:504–7. doi:10.1038/nature12060.
2 Brady OJ, Gething PW, Bhatt S, Messina JP, Brownstein JS, Hoen AG et al. Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6:e1760. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001760.
1 comment:
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