Saturday, October 20, 2018

The Modi Effect 2.0

More than a thousand people died in interreligious violence at the start of his watch, a tragedy that came Close to ending his career almost as soon as it had begun. So to his many critics, Modi isn't enough of an outsider. They believe he should have been excluded from political life once and for all. That even George W. Bush Should have considered him enough of an extremist to refuse him a visa said all that needed to be said about him for many western liberals. But on the day the results of the general election were announced, 16 May 2014, Modi had the best of all answers to his critics, a decisive victory delivered by the votes of hundreds of millions of Indian citizens, who knew all about his record and had decided nonetheless that he was the man to take the nation forward. Just as I would not have voted for him, I never voted for Margaret Thatcher either. But I couldn't help but be impressed by the professionalism and  effectiveness of her election campaigns. I was on the inside as director of communications when Tony Blair secured his landslide victory in Britain in 2001. On that occasion we fought with every weapon at our disposal. We battered the Conservative Party into submission and we kicked them when they were down in the hope that they would not be able to recover for a very long time to come. So I am not squeamish about aggressive election campaigns. In 2014, Modi did exactly the same to the Congress Party. One of Tony Blair's former ministers, Patricia Hewitt, who now chairs the UK India Business Council, called it 'an absolutely model campaign. It had many of the best bits of Blair, Clinton and Obama but with even more modern techniques that even they hadn't dreamed of.' Modi picked up some ideas from campaigns in the west but, as he reminded me, India is a very different kind of country 'If you take a look at the Tony Blair campaign, it had some very good learnings for us but the scale was much smaller. India is the largest democracy on earth. If you add up the next forty democratic countries you will just about reach the total of the electorate in India. 

Even so, India did inherit the basic structures of its modern parliamentary democracy, and much else besides, from Britain, and that democracy, while far from perfect, has served the country well. As Patrick French, one of the best outside observers of the country, notes, 'Half the people in the world who live in a democracy live in India, and an Indian general election can be like nothing on earth.' India may have learned parliamentary politics from the west, but the election of 2014 was not merely home-grown, it was an example to political parties across the world of what a determined leader and a disciplined party can achieve. This was India's version of Barack Obama's 'Yes We Can!' but amplified a hundred times over. By its use of innovative technology and social media, its ability to reach parts of the country never touched by a national campaign before, and galvanising young people and uninterested in or disillusioned by campaign was a master-class in its capacity for those normally politics, the Modi modern electoral campaign was a master-class in modern electoral politics. In many ways it was the right campaign at the right time, and under different circumstances it might not have delivered the clear parliamentary majority that it did. The number of people voting for his BJP more than doubled compared to the previous election in 2009, but for all its success the party fell a long way short of getting Modi a simple majority of the votes cast. Candidates running under the colours of the BJP secured 31%. They were aligned with numerous smaller parties in what is called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Between them they pushed the tally up to almost 39%. The once dominant Congress Party could manage only 19% by itself and 23% when its partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) were added in. The first- past-the-post parliamentary system, another hangover from British rule, had served Modi well. The

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