FROM CAKEWALK TO CONTEST: INDIA’S 2019 GENERAL ELECTION
MILAN VAISHNAV | APRIL 2018
MILAN VAISHNAV | APRIL 2018
In approximately twelve months, Indian voters from Kanyakumari to Kashmir will go to the polls to select their next parliament. The country’s 2019 general election—like previous contests—will be the largest democratic exercise in world history. More than 850 million voters will be eligible to help determine which political party or alliance will form the government and, in turn, who will serve as prime minister.
FROM CAKEWALK TO CONTEST: INDIA’S 2019 GENERAL ELECTION
Electoral outcomes are notoriously difficult to predict in India’s fragmented, hypercompetitive democracy. But one need not go out on a limb to declare that the ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be the clear favorite if the election were held today.
Following the BJP’s decisive 2014 mandate, many analysts confidently proclaimed that Modi would remain in power for at least two, if not three, terms. Opinion polls reveal that
Modi remains highly popular after four years in office, and the BJP has managed to methodically expand its national footprint in numerous state elections since 2014. The opposition,
comprised of the once-dominant Indian National Congress and a plethora of regional parties, has struggled to counter the BJP onslaught.
Yet the election’s clear front-runner is far from invulnerable,
despite anticipation of a BJP cakewalk in 2019. Althoughthe intricacies of the upcoming race—such as the selection of candidates and the rhetoric of campaigns—remain
unknown one year out, underlying structural conditions suggest far rockier terrain may lie ahead. In particular, four crucial objectives keep BJP strategists up at night: expanding
beyond regional strongholds, recruiting new—and retaining
old—coalition partners, withstanding a disappointing economic performance, and contending with fluctuations in voter mobilization. The party’s performance in the 2019 election
will hinge largely on its ability to address these potential
vulnerabilities and the opposition’s ability to exploit them.
2014 AND BEYOND
To understand the BJP’s position today, one must recall how
unusual India’s 2014 election results were. Between 2004 and
2014, the Congress Party and its allies (known collectively as
the United Progressive Alliance, or UPA) ran the central government
in New Delhi. Although the UPA oversaw record
economic growth during its first term, its second term was
markedly less positive, as a slowing economy, doubts about
its leadership, and an endless parade of corruption scandals
badly dented the Congress-led alliance’s credibility.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Milan Vaishnav is the director and a senior fellow in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is co-editor
(with Devesh Kapur) of the forthcoming book, Costs of Democracy: Political Finance in India (Oxford University Press, 2018).
INDIA ELECTS 2019
2
In an era of fractured political mandates in New Delhi, the
Modi-led BJP achieved what many analysts believed was
unthinkable: it won a clear, single-party majority in the lower
house of the Indian parliament (the Lok Sabha) by capturing
282 of 543 seats (see figure 1). Its political allies—members
of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—netted
another fifty-three seats. Although the BJP campaigned
under the banner of “Mission 272” (a number that represents
the threshold for a parliamentary majority), few Indians
(even within the BJP itself) believed that the party was likely
to meet, let alone surpass, this mark on its own.
The 2014 electoral outcome was historic. No party had
obtained a clear majority of Lok Sabha seats on its own
since 1984 when the Congress did so after the assassination
of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. 2014 was the first
time a non-Congress party had achieved an outright majority
by itself without the need for a large, unwieldy coalition.
Meanwhile, the Congress sank to its lowest total in history—
a paltry forty-four seats. Prior to 2014, the fewest seats the
Congress had won in a general election was 114 in 1999.
In addition, the 2014 election saw record voter turnout: 66.4
percent of eligible voters (or roughly 554 million voters) cast
ballots, a sharp uptick from the 58 percent recorded in the
two previous elections.
With each passing year, the national reach of the BJP has
grown while the reach of the Congress has shrunk. The BJP
and its allies now run twenty-one of India’s twenty-nine
states—home to over 70 percent of the Indian population
(see figure 2). Prior to Modi’s election, the NDA controlled
just eight states. The BJP’s gains have largely come at the
expense of the Congress; whereas the latter ran thirteen states
prior to the last general election, today it governs in just four.
Furthermore, only two of these (Karnataka and Punjab) have
substantial populations (with roughly 90 million residents
between them).
The lion’s share of the credit for the BJP’s resurgence belongs
to Modi, who remains the most popular politician in India.
In May 2014, 36 percent of Indians surveyed named him
as their preferred candidate for prime minister, compared
Figure 1. Distribution of Seats in Lok Sabha Elections, 1984–2014
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 3
to just 14 percent for Congress President Rahul Gandhi.
Although Modi’s rating might sound low from a comparative
perspective, it is remarkably high for India’s fragmented
political system in which 464 parties contested the 2014
general election. While Gandhi’s rating had risen to 20
percent by January 2018, Modi’s popularity has remained
extremely stable throughout his four years in office (hovering
around 37 percent). Historically, Gandhi’s rating has proven
erratic, in part due to his twin struggles with consistency and
effectiveness.
REIMAGINING THE MAP
Pulling off an encore performance of the BJP’s sweeping
2014 victory will be a tall order; to compensate for potential
losses in its core areas, the party must venture into new territory.
In 2014, the BJP virtually swept areas where it traditionally
enjoys strong support in northern and western India
(see figure 3). Just eight states—Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat,
Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and
Uttar Pradesh—accounted for over 75 percent of the BJP’s
Figure 2. BJP’s Expanding Footprint, 2014–2018
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
2014 State Control 2018 State Control
BJP BJP allies
INC INC allies
Other Indeterminate
BJP BJP allies
INC Other
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
Note: The eight states that account for 75 percent of BJP seats are outlined in bold.
Figure 3. BJP’s 2014 Performance in Core States
Non-BJP seat
BJP seat
No data
Note: The maps indicate the partisan control of states in 2014 and 2018, respectively.
4
tally in parliament. Collectively, these states account for 273
seats, of which the BJP won 216 (nearly 80 percent).
Running the table in two consecutive elections will be an
uphill battle. Indian voters are legendary for their tendency
to harbor anti-incumbency sentiments; research suggests that
individual members of parliament (MPs) are just as likely
to get thrown out of office at the end of their term as to get
voted back in. There are also state-level anti-incumbency
effects that have negative spillovers on national politics. Parliamentary
candidates representing a given state’s ruling party
enjoy an electoral advantage in national elections, but only
when national elections are held early in the state government’s
term. Once this honeymoon period is over, holding
power in India’s states becomes a liability in general elections.
This poses a problem for the BJP, which serves as the ruling
party in all eight of these core states; in five of them, its
governments are nearing the ends of their terms.
Because Modi and BJP President Amit Shah—a longtime
Modi aide and a savvy campaign strategist—know engineering
another sweep of these eight core states will be difficult,
they have placed great importance on expanding the BJP’s
footprint into parts of the country where it traditionally has
been weak. Hence, the BJP’s painstaking devotion to breaking
into India’s northeast—long considered to be a bastion
of the Congress and smaller regional parties. The northeast is
often seen as inconsequential to the overall electoral picture
given that it accounts for just 3.7 percent of India’s population.
Yet the region boasts twenty-five parliamentary seats, a
tempting prize for a party that covets new territory to compensate
for losses likely to be sustained elsewhere. Thanks
to a series of recent state-level victories, the BJP now sits in
government in seven of these eight states and is building up
organizational and alliance networks across the region; as a
relatively new player in northeastern India, the BJP is less
likely to fall prey to Indian voters’ antipathy for incumbents
there than in the party’s traditional strongholds. Whereas
the Congress retains the capacity to put up a good fight in
the Hindi heartland, its stature in the northeast has rapidly
diminished.
Having established a foothold in northeastern India, the
BJP now aims to increase its strength along India’s eastern
seaboard in major states such as Odisha, Tamil Nadu,
Telangana, and West Bengal. In a fifth state, Andhra Pradesh,
the BJP has worked primarily through a key alliance partner—the
Telugu Desam Party (TDP). The four aforementioned
states serve as a sort of firewall the BJP has struggled
to penetrate in national elections. All told, these five states
collectively account for 144 seats in the parliament. Each is
home to one (or more) powerful parties with strong ties to
linguistic, regional, and cultural identities the BJP
currently lacks.
However, this firewall may be fracturing. In West Bengal, the
BJP trails the ruling Trinamool Congress Party in terms of
statewide appeal. But it views the demise of the two principal
opposition forces—the Left (a coalition of left-leaning parties)
and the Congress—as providing a crucial opening for it
to emerge as the second-largest party. The ruling Biju Janata
Dal of Odisha won twenty of twenty-one parliamentary
seats in 2014, ceding just one to the BJP. But the latter won
one-quarter of the vote and has subsequently performed well
in municipal elections. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is a bit player
on its own but sees the potential to make inroads through
alliances. Fissures within the state’s ruling party, the All India
Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have given the BJP hope
that the party system might be ripe for realignment.
COALITION DYNAMICS
Sustaining previous hard-won gains and breaking new
ground in pockets of the country outside BJP strongholds,
however, will require partners. On this score, the BJP’s prognosis
is mixed.
On the one hand, thanks to the widespread sense that the
BJP has the wind at its back, the party has become the
central pole around which politics in India revolves. This
distinguished position once belonged to the Congress, but
its recent electoral stumbles and the BJP’s abundant successes
have decisively changed the equation. In three recent state
elections—in Goa, Manipur, and Meghalaya—the BJP failed
to emerge as the single largest party. Nonetheless, thanks to
its allure as an alliance partner, the BJP formed governments
in all three states by winning over several smaller parties who
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 5
decided to join a party gaining momentum rather than one
appearing to lose it. Across states, the BJP, not the Congress,
seems to be the default governing party.
Yet recent events suggest that the BJP’s electoral coalition is
showing signs of strain. Existing BJP allies are voicing concerns
about the party’s methods, raising the possibility that
its electoral coalition could fracture. Two of the BJP’s biggest
allies, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the TDP in Andhra
Pradesh, have recently put the BJP on notice that they are
unhappy with its “arrogant” leadership style. The Shiv Sena
announced in January 2018 that it would contest the 2019
elections alone, rather than with the BJP. In March, the TDP
pulled its ministers from the central cabinet in New Delhi to
express disappointment with the Modi government’s failure
to help Andhra Pradesh tap additional central government
funds. When the BJP refused to budge, the TDP announced
its decision to formally exit the alliance. These ruptures,
while not fatal or irreversible, potentially complicate the
BJP’s electoral arithmetic in 2019. If the BJP is successfully
tarred as anti-Andhra, it would be difficult for the party to
notch a pre-poll alliance with any of the major regional parties
there, increasing the likelihood that a sizeable chunk of
the state’s twenty-five seats would be out of the BJP’s reach.
In Maharashtra, provided the opposition coalition remains
intact, the split with the Shiv Sena could create a threeway
race.
Luckily for the BJP, the opposition remains in disarray. The
Congress has been slow to rectify the organizational and
leadership deficiencies laid bare in 2014. As one senior party
leader has mused, the Congress has faced electoral crises
before, but what it faces today is an existential crisis. While
it will likely gain seats in 2019, one Congress leader privately
admitted that a triple-digit figure would be a stretch at
present.1
Left parties have seen a precipitous decline nearly
everywhere save for the state of Kerala, its last remaining
stronghold. The upstart Aam Aadmi Party, which came to
power in the Delhi state assembly by way of an assertive,
agitational brand of politics, has struggled to extend its reach
beyond the national capital. Moreover, parties opposed to the
BJP have failed to coordinate and pool their votes so as to
keep the BJP out of power.
There have been two notable exceptions where opposition
parties have set aside their differences and forged a degree
of bonhomie. The first was the 2015 state election in Bihar,
where a so-called grand alliance of opposition parties joined
hands to keep the BJP from winning power. The opposition
alliance won a resounding victory, but this short-lived
marriage of convenience ultimately ended when one party
defected. More recently, in March 2018, two rival regional
parties in Uttar Pradesh buried their long-standing differences
to jointly defeat the BJP in a special election. Regional
players could give the BJP a run for its money in their respective
states, but doing so will require them to work cooperatively—something
that does not come naturally to rivals
who bitterly jostle for political space. The effects of the BJP’s
own alliance drama will be mitigated if the opposition proves
unable or unwilling to do business together in 2019.
ECONOMIC ANXIETY
But it is not only allies the BJP must worry about retaining;
many voters who were swayed by Modi’s promise to
usher in acche din (good times) by reenergizing the Indian
economy have also grown restive. In 2014, India was plagued
by slumping growth, ballooning deficits, stalled investments,
and soaring inflation—offering the BJP untold opportunities
to critique the Congress Party’s mismanagement of bread and-butter
issues. Although invocations of Hindu majoritarianism
also populated the BJP’s entreaties, it was the BJP’s
insistence that it would rectify the declining economy that
resonated across the country. Yet as economic progress under
Modi has fallen short of expectations, anxieties about the lack
of job creation have led to massive popular protests in state
after state. While the intensity and scope of voter disaffection
with India’s economy is not certain, there are signs that disquiet
is rising among rural voters who decisively backed the
BJP four years ago. Given that farmers account for roughly
half of India’s labor force, rural economic woes raise alarm
bells for every incumbent politician.
BJP strategists once believed that economic revival would
be the hallmark of the 2019 campaign. Unfortunately for
them, the economy has not experienced a uniform revival
(see figure 4). Growth, while high by international standards,
remains well below the country’s potential. A failure to deal
quickly with a systemic banking crisis has bogged down the
domestic investment cycle. Inflation, which has fallen from
the double-digit levels of the tenure of the Congress, remains
a risk in an election year when the pressure to spend will be
elevated. Furthermore, the Modi government’s decisions to
abruptly remove high-value currency notes from circulation
(“demonetize”) and enact the sweeping Goods and Services
Tax reform have hurt short-term growth, irrespective of
their longer-term merits. More importantly, for the average
Indian, job growth has been anemic. According to the
Reserve Bank of India, total employment actually shrank
between 2014 and 2016. While it appears that nonfarm jobs
grew over this period, farming jobs declined—perhaps as a
result of successive droughts.
The BJP is betting that its flagship welfare schemes might
inoculate it against its patchy economic record. Criticized
for having cozy links to corporate capital, Modi’s administration
has doggedly tried to burnish its pro-poor credentials by
doubling down on major welfare schemes—such as granting
every household a bank account, initiating free cooking gas
connections to families below the poverty line, and ensuring
universal affordable housing.
These efforts notwithstanding, economic travails are especially
apparent in rural India. Although once the bailiwick of the
Congress, many rural voters in 2014 switched their allegiance
to the BJP—a party that has historically performed better
with city-dwellers. The rural shift toward the BJP could easily
swing back to the Congress; for instance, available data
suggests that support for the BJP alliance among farmers
has declined over the past year. Indeed, recent distress in the
farming sector is likely sending chills down the spines of BJP
leaders. Despite Modi’s promises to double agrarian incomes
by 2022, agriculture remains in a state of disrepair. While the
causes of this distress are largely structural, proximate factors
such as the decline in the prices of several agricultural commodities
and shortfalls in farm production have stimulated
outrage among many rural Indians.
A clear warning shot was fired in December 2017 during
elections in Gujarat, a longtime BJP bastion. Although
it retained its majority in the state assembly, the BJP
Figure 4. India’s Quarterly GDP Growth, 2012–2017
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 7
encountered serious rural opposition—especially in the key
region of Saurashtra—where the Congress prevailed by capitalizing
on caste politics and the waning fortunes of farmers.
In March 2018, as many as 50,000 farmers in Maharashtra
descended on the state capital of Mumbai to demand the
BJP state government move swiftly to aid them. How wide
this disaffection has spread is unclear. All eyes will be on
upcoming state elections in Karnataka (in May 2018) and
Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, and Rajasthan (in
December 2018) to discern whether this alleged drop-off in
rural locales is sustained.
VOTER MOBILIZATION
A final concern for the BJP in 2019 is voter mobilization. In
2014, the party successfully channeled popular disaffection
with the incumbent Congress Party into record voter turnout
(66.4 percent). Voter turnout had previously peaked at 64
percent in 1984 and fell to between 56 and 62 percent in
subsequent election cycles. As Neelanjan Sircar has pointed
out, there was a strong association between the growth in
voter turnout and the improved fortunes of the BJP in the
2014 election (see figure 5). A key source of strength came
from young voters. Research has demonstrated that states
with the largest increases in the share of young, first-time
voters in 2014 also experienced the biggest gains in BJP vote
share. With the novelty of Modi and BJP rule in New Delhi
wearing thin, there is a risk that voter turnout will return to
ordinary levels, reducing the BJP’s enthusiasm advantage.
One key demographic the BJP believes it can energize in
2019 is women. Although they do not vote as a bloc per se,
the party believes several of its welfare schemes have special
resonance with women and can influence their votes. This is
significant because Indian females are voting in greater numbers
than ever before. In 2014, women voted at higher rates
than men in sixteen of India’s thirty-five states and union
territories. At the state level, female turnout now regularly
surpasses male turnout.
Looking ahead, the BJP’s predicament is how to mobilize
voters as an incumbent party. One possibility is that the
party will choose to invoke the Hindu nationalist card more
expressly and more intensively to rile up its base. Such a
move toward polarization would become even more likely if
the opposition successfully bands together to forge a common
anti-BJP front. Yet such a risky strategy could turn off
as many (or more) voters as it galvanizes.
CONCLUSION
One year in advance, many details of the 2019 race remain
unknown, but its structural drivers are quickly coming into
view. Modi and Shah are wasting no time in recalibrating
their approach to mitigate the BJP’s unexpected challenges.
For instance, the government’s most recent budget was
packed with pro-poor rhetoric and numerous sops meant to
allay rural anger. As existing allies are growing wary of the
BJP’s modus operandi, the party’s high command has stepped
up its outreach to smooth frayed relations. And, concerned
about waning voter enthusiasm, Modi has directed the
party’s elected representatives to redouble efforts to connect
with constituents. In one instance, Modi is reported to
have warned sitting BJP MPs that they must amass at least
300,000 followers on social media or risk losing their
party tickets.
The opposition is making adjustments as well. Gandhi
and the once-dithering Congress appear more focused and
consistent. The opposition, at least rhetorically, is embracing
the need to forge a common anti-BJP front in 2019. Twelve
months is an eternity in politics, but one thing has become
evident: once thought to be a cakewalk for the BJP, the 2019
election is turning into a contest.
NOTES
MILAN VAISHNAV | APRIL 2018
MILAN VAISHNAV | APRIL 2018
In approximately twelve months, Indian voters from Kanyakumari to Kashmir will go to the polls to select their next parliament. The country’s 2019 general election—like previous contests—will be the largest democratic exercise in world history. More than 850 million voters will be eligible to help determine which political party or alliance will form the government and, in turn, who will serve as prime minister.
FROM CAKEWALK TO CONTEST: INDIA’S 2019 GENERAL ELECTION
Electoral outcomes are notoriously difficult to predict in India’s fragmented, hypercompetitive democracy. But one need not go out on a limb to declare that the ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be the clear favorite if the election were held today.
Following the BJP’s decisive 2014 mandate, many analysts confidently proclaimed that Modi would remain in power for at least two, if not three, terms. Opinion polls reveal that
Modi remains highly popular after four years in office, and the BJP has managed to methodically expand its national footprint in numerous state elections since 2014. The opposition,
comprised of the once-dominant Indian National Congress and a plethora of regional parties, has struggled to counter the BJP onslaught.
Yet the election’s clear front-runner is far from invulnerable,
despite anticipation of a BJP cakewalk in 2019. Althoughthe intricacies of the upcoming race—such as the selection of candidates and the rhetoric of campaigns—remain
unknown one year out, underlying structural conditions suggest far rockier terrain may lie ahead. In particular, four crucial objectives keep BJP strategists up at night: expanding
beyond regional strongholds, recruiting new—and retaining
old—coalition partners, withstanding a disappointing economic performance, and contending with fluctuations in voter mobilization. The party’s performance in the 2019 election
will hinge largely on its ability to address these potential
vulnerabilities and the opposition’s ability to exploit them.
2014 AND BEYOND
To understand the BJP’s position today, one must recall how
unusual India’s 2014 election results were. Between 2004 and
2014, the Congress Party and its allies (known collectively as
the United Progressive Alliance, or UPA) ran the central government
in New Delhi. Although the UPA oversaw record
economic growth during its first term, its second term was
markedly less positive, as a slowing economy, doubts about
its leadership, and an endless parade of corruption scandals
badly dented the Congress-led alliance’s credibility.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Milan Vaishnav is the director and a senior fellow in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is co-editor
(with Devesh Kapur) of the forthcoming book, Costs of Democracy: Political Finance in India (Oxford University Press, 2018).
INDIA ELECTS 2019
2
In an era of fractured political mandates in New Delhi, the
Modi-led BJP achieved what many analysts believed was
unthinkable: it won a clear, single-party majority in the lower
house of the Indian parliament (the Lok Sabha) by capturing
282 of 543 seats (see figure 1). Its political allies—members
of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—netted
another fifty-three seats. Although the BJP campaigned
under the banner of “Mission 272” (a number that represents
the threshold for a parliamentary majority), few Indians
(even within the BJP itself) believed that the party was likely
to meet, let alone surpass, this mark on its own.
The 2014 electoral outcome was historic. No party had
obtained a clear majority of Lok Sabha seats on its own
since 1984 when the Congress did so after the assassination
of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. 2014 was the first
time a non-Congress party had achieved an outright majority
by itself without the need for a large, unwieldy coalition.
Meanwhile, the Congress sank to its lowest total in history—
a paltry forty-four seats. Prior to 2014, the fewest seats the
Congress had won in a general election was 114 in 1999.
In addition, the 2014 election saw record voter turnout: 66.4
percent of eligible voters (or roughly 554 million voters) cast
ballots, a sharp uptick from the 58 percent recorded in the
two previous elections.
With each passing year, the national reach of the BJP has
grown while the reach of the Congress has shrunk. The BJP
and its allies now run twenty-one of India’s twenty-nine
states—home to over 70 percent of the Indian population
(see figure 2). Prior to Modi’s election, the NDA controlled
just eight states. The BJP’s gains have largely come at the
expense of the Congress; whereas the latter ran thirteen states
prior to the last general election, today it governs in just four.
Furthermore, only two of these (Karnataka and Punjab) have
substantial populations (with roughly 90 million residents
between them).
The lion’s share of the credit for the BJP’s resurgence belongs
to Modi, who remains the most popular politician in India.
In May 2014, 36 percent of Indians surveyed named him
as their preferred candidate for prime minister, compared
Figure 1. Distribution of Seats in Lok Sabha Elections, 1984–2014
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 3
to just 14 percent for Congress President Rahul Gandhi.
Although Modi’s rating might sound low from a comparative
perspective, it is remarkably high for India’s fragmented
political system in which 464 parties contested the 2014
general election. While Gandhi’s rating had risen to 20
percent by January 2018, Modi’s popularity has remained
extremely stable throughout his four years in office (hovering
around 37 percent). Historically, Gandhi’s rating has proven
erratic, in part due to his twin struggles with consistency and
effectiveness.
REIMAGINING THE MAP
Pulling off an encore performance of the BJP’s sweeping
2014 victory will be a tall order; to compensate for potential
losses in its core areas, the party must venture into new territory.
In 2014, the BJP virtually swept areas where it traditionally
enjoys strong support in northern and western India
(see figure 3). Just eight states—Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat,
Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and
Uttar Pradesh—accounted for over 75 percent of the BJP’s
Figure 2. BJP’s Expanding Footprint, 2014–2018
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
2014 State Control 2018 State Control
BJP BJP allies
INC INC allies
Other Indeterminate
BJP BJP allies
INC Other
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Election Commission of India (ECI)
Note: The eight states that account for 75 percent of BJP seats are outlined in bold.
Figure 3. BJP’s 2014 Performance in Core States
Non-BJP seat
BJP seat
No data
Note: The maps indicate the partisan control of states in 2014 and 2018, respectively.
4
tally in parliament. Collectively, these states account for 273
seats, of which the BJP won 216 (nearly 80 percent).
Running the table in two consecutive elections will be an
uphill battle. Indian voters are legendary for their tendency
to harbor anti-incumbency sentiments; research suggests that
individual members of parliament (MPs) are just as likely
to get thrown out of office at the end of their term as to get
voted back in. There are also state-level anti-incumbency
effects that have negative spillovers on national politics. Parliamentary
candidates representing a given state’s ruling party
enjoy an electoral advantage in national elections, but only
when national elections are held early in the state government’s
term. Once this honeymoon period is over, holding
power in India’s states becomes a liability in general elections.
This poses a problem for the BJP, which serves as the ruling
party in all eight of these core states; in five of them, its
governments are nearing the ends of their terms.
Because Modi and BJP President Amit Shah—a longtime
Modi aide and a savvy campaign strategist—know engineering
another sweep of these eight core states will be difficult,
they have placed great importance on expanding the BJP’s
footprint into parts of the country where it traditionally has
been weak. Hence, the BJP’s painstaking devotion to breaking
into India’s northeast—long considered to be a bastion
of the Congress and smaller regional parties. The northeast is
often seen as inconsequential to the overall electoral picture
given that it accounts for just 3.7 percent of India’s population.
Yet the region boasts twenty-five parliamentary seats, a
tempting prize for a party that covets new territory to compensate
for losses likely to be sustained elsewhere. Thanks
to a series of recent state-level victories, the BJP now sits in
government in seven of these eight states and is building up
organizational and alliance networks across the region; as a
relatively new player in northeastern India, the BJP is less
likely to fall prey to Indian voters’ antipathy for incumbents
there than in the party’s traditional strongholds. Whereas
the Congress retains the capacity to put up a good fight in
the Hindi heartland, its stature in the northeast has rapidly
diminished.
Having established a foothold in northeastern India, the
BJP now aims to increase its strength along India’s eastern
seaboard in major states such as Odisha, Tamil Nadu,
Telangana, and West Bengal. In a fifth state, Andhra Pradesh,
the BJP has worked primarily through a key alliance partner—the
Telugu Desam Party (TDP). The four aforementioned
states serve as a sort of firewall the BJP has struggled
to penetrate in national elections. All told, these five states
collectively account for 144 seats in the parliament. Each is
home to one (or more) powerful parties with strong ties to
linguistic, regional, and cultural identities the BJP
currently lacks.
However, this firewall may be fracturing. In West Bengal, the
BJP trails the ruling Trinamool Congress Party in terms of
statewide appeal. But it views the demise of the two principal
opposition forces—the Left (a coalition of left-leaning parties)
and the Congress—as providing a crucial opening for it
to emerge as the second-largest party. The ruling Biju Janata
Dal of Odisha won twenty of twenty-one parliamentary
seats in 2014, ceding just one to the BJP. But the latter won
one-quarter of the vote and has subsequently performed well
in municipal elections. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is a bit player
on its own but sees the potential to make inroads through
alliances. Fissures within the state’s ruling party, the All India
Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have given the BJP hope
that the party system might be ripe for realignment.
COALITION DYNAMICS
Sustaining previous hard-won gains and breaking new
ground in pockets of the country outside BJP strongholds,
however, will require partners. On this score, the BJP’s prognosis
is mixed.
On the one hand, thanks to the widespread sense that the
BJP has the wind at its back, the party has become the
central pole around which politics in India revolves. This
distinguished position once belonged to the Congress, but
its recent electoral stumbles and the BJP’s abundant successes
have decisively changed the equation. In three recent state
elections—in Goa, Manipur, and Meghalaya—the BJP failed
to emerge as the single largest party. Nonetheless, thanks to
its allure as an alliance partner, the BJP formed governments
in all three states by winning over several smaller parties who
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 5
decided to join a party gaining momentum rather than one
appearing to lose it. Across states, the BJP, not the Congress,
seems to be the default governing party.
Yet recent events suggest that the BJP’s electoral coalition is
showing signs of strain. Existing BJP allies are voicing concerns
about the party’s methods, raising the possibility that
its electoral coalition could fracture. Two of the BJP’s biggest
allies, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the TDP in Andhra
Pradesh, have recently put the BJP on notice that they are
unhappy with its “arrogant” leadership style. The Shiv Sena
announced in January 2018 that it would contest the 2019
elections alone, rather than with the BJP. In March, the TDP
pulled its ministers from the central cabinet in New Delhi to
express disappointment with the Modi government’s failure
to help Andhra Pradesh tap additional central government
funds. When the BJP refused to budge, the TDP announced
its decision to formally exit the alliance. These ruptures,
while not fatal or irreversible, potentially complicate the
BJP’s electoral arithmetic in 2019. If the BJP is successfully
tarred as anti-Andhra, it would be difficult for the party to
notch a pre-poll alliance with any of the major regional parties
there, increasing the likelihood that a sizeable chunk of
the state’s twenty-five seats would be out of the BJP’s reach.
In Maharashtra, provided the opposition coalition remains
intact, the split with the Shiv Sena could create a threeway
race.
Luckily for the BJP, the opposition remains in disarray. The
Congress has been slow to rectify the organizational and
leadership deficiencies laid bare in 2014. As one senior party
leader has mused, the Congress has faced electoral crises
before, but what it faces today is an existential crisis. While
it will likely gain seats in 2019, one Congress leader privately
admitted that a triple-digit figure would be a stretch at
present.1
Left parties have seen a precipitous decline nearly
everywhere save for the state of Kerala, its last remaining
stronghold. The upstart Aam Aadmi Party, which came to
power in the Delhi state assembly by way of an assertive,
agitational brand of politics, has struggled to extend its reach
beyond the national capital. Moreover, parties opposed to the
BJP have failed to coordinate and pool their votes so as to
keep the BJP out of power.
There have been two notable exceptions where opposition
parties have set aside their differences and forged a degree
of bonhomie. The first was the 2015 state election in Bihar,
where a so-called grand alliance of opposition parties joined
hands to keep the BJP from winning power. The opposition
alliance won a resounding victory, but this short-lived
marriage of convenience ultimately ended when one party
defected. More recently, in March 2018, two rival regional
parties in Uttar Pradesh buried their long-standing differences
to jointly defeat the BJP in a special election. Regional
players could give the BJP a run for its money in their respective
states, but doing so will require them to work cooperatively—something
that does not come naturally to rivals
who bitterly jostle for political space. The effects of the BJP’s
own alliance drama will be mitigated if the opposition proves
unable or unwilling to do business together in 2019.
ECONOMIC ANXIETY
But it is not only allies the BJP must worry about retaining;
many voters who were swayed by Modi’s promise to
usher in acche din (good times) by reenergizing the Indian
economy have also grown restive. In 2014, India was plagued
by slumping growth, ballooning deficits, stalled investments,
and soaring inflation—offering the BJP untold opportunities
to critique the Congress Party’s mismanagement of bread and-butter
issues. Although invocations of Hindu majoritarianism
also populated the BJP’s entreaties, it was the BJP’s
insistence that it would rectify the declining economy that
resonated across the country. Yet as economic progress under
Modi has fallen short of expectations, anxieties about the lack
of job creation have led to massive popular protests in state
after state. While the intensity and scope of voter disaffection
with India’s economy is not certain, there are signs that disquiet
is rising among rural voters who decisively backed the
BJP four years ago. Given that farmers account for roughly
half of India’s labor force, rural economic woes raise alarm
bells for every incumbent politician.
BJP strategists once believed that economic revival would
be the hallmark of the 2019 campaign. Unfortunately for
them, the economy has not experienced a uniform revival
(see figure 4). Growth, while high by international standards,
remains well below the country’s potential. A failure to deal
quickly with a systemic banking crisis has bogged down the
domestic investment cycle. Inflation, which has fallen from
the double-digit levels of the tenure of the Congress, remains
a risk in an election year when the pressure to spend will be
elevated. Furthermore, the Modi government’s decisions to
abruptly remove high-value currency notes from circulation
(“demonetize”) and enact the sweeping Goods and Services
Tax reform have hurt short-term growth, irrespective of
their longer-term merits. More importantly, for the average
Indian, job growth has been anemic. According to the
Reserve Bank of India, total employment actually shrank
between 2014 and 2016. While it appears that nonfarm jobs
grew over this period, farming jobs declined—perhaps as a
result of successive droughts.
The BJP is betting that its flagship welfare schemes might
inoculate it against its patchy economic record. Criticized
for having cozy links to corporate capital, Modi’s administration
has doggedly tried to burnish its pro-poor credentials by
doubling down on major welfare schemes—such as granting
every household a bank account, initiating free cooking gas
connections to families below the poverty line, and ensuring
universal affordable housing.
These efforts notwithstanding, economic travails are especially
apparent in rural India. Although once the bailiwick of the
Congress, many rural voters in 2014 switched their allegiance
to the BJP—a party that has historically performed better
with city-dwellers. The rural shift toward the BJP could easily
swing back to the Congress; for instance, available data
suggests that support for the BJP alliance among farmers
has declined over the past year. Indeed, recent distress in the
farming sector is likely sending chills down the spines of BJP
leaders. Despite Modi’s promises to double agrarian incomes
by 2022, agriculture remains in a state of disrepair. While the
causes of this distress are largely structural, proximate factors
such as the decline in the prices of several agricultural commodities
and shortfalls in farm production have stimulated
outrage among many rural Indians.
A clear warning shot was fired in December 2017 during
elections in Gujarat, a longtime BJP bastion. Although
it retained its majority in the state assembly, the BJP
Figure 4. India’s Quarterly GDP Growth, 2012–2017
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE | 7
encountered serious rural opposition—especially in the key
region of Saurashtra—where the Congress prevailed by capitalizing
on caste politics and the waning fortunes of farmers.
In March 2018, as many as 50,000 farmers in Maharashtra
descended on the state capital of Mumbai to demand the
BJP state government move swiftly to aid them. How wide
this disaffection has spread is unclear. All eyes will be on
upcoming state elections in Karnataka (in May 2018) and
Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, and Rajasthan (in
December 2018) to discern whether this alleged drop-off in
rural locales is sustained.
VOTER MOBILIZATION
A final concern for the BJP in 2019 is voter mobilization. In
2014, the party successfully channeled popular disaffection
with the incumbent Congress Party into record voter turnout
(66.4 percent). Voter turnout had previously peaked at 64
percent in 1984 and fell to between 56 and 62 percent in
subsequent election cycles. As Neelanjan Sircar has pointed
out, there was a strong association between the growth in
voter turnout and the improved fortunes of the BJP in the
2014 election (see figure 5). A key source of strength came
from young voters. Research has demonstrated that states
with the largest increases in the share of young, first-time
voters in 2014 also experienced the biggest gains in BJP vote
share. With the novelty of Modi and BJP rule in New Delhi
wearing thin, there is a risk that voter turnout will return to
ordinary levels, reducing the BJP’s enthusiasm advantage.
One key demographic the BJP believes it can energize in
2019 is women. Although they do not vote as a bloc per se,
the party believes several of its welfare schemes have special
resonance with women and can influence their votes. This is
significant because Indian females are voting in greater numbers
than ever before. In 2014, women voted at higher rates
than men in sixteen of India’s thirty-five states and union
territories. At the state level, female turnout now regularly
surpasses male turnout.
Looking ahead, the BJP’s predicament is how to mobilize
voters as an incumbent party. One possibility is that the
party will choose to invoke the Hindu nationalist card more
expressly and more intensively to rile up its base. Such a
move toward polarization would become even more likely if
the opposition successfully bands together to forge a common
anti-BJP front. Yet such a risky strategy could turn off
as many (or more) voters as it galvanizes.
CONCLUSION
One year in advance, many details of the 2019 race remain
unknown, but its structural drivers are quickly coming into
view. Modi and Shah are wasting no time in recalibrating
their approach to mitigate the BJP’s unexpected challenges.
For instance, the government’s most recent budget was
packed with pro-poor rhetoric and numerous sops meant to
allay rural anger. As existing allies are growing wary of the
BJP’s modus operandi, the party’s high command has stepped
up its outreach to smooth frayed relations. And, concerned
about waning voter enthusiasm, Modi has directed the
party’s elected representatives to redouble efforts to connect
with constituents. In one instance, Modi is reported to
have warned sitting BJP MPs that they must amass at least
300,000 followers on social media or risk losing their
party tickets.
The opposition is making adjustments as well. Gandhi
and the once-dithering Congress appear more focused and
consistent. The opposition, at least rhetorically, is embracing
the need to forge a common anti-BJP front in 2019. Twelve
months is an eternity in politics, but one thing has become
evident: once thought to be a cakewalk for the BJP, the 2019
election is turning into a contest.
NOTES
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